Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Medal Outcome Expectation At The London Olympics

Goldman Sachs has come out with a dazzling, 48-page report examining the economics and finances of the imminent London Olympics.
Let me show you their predictions for something that a lot of people will be wondering about: How many medals will each country win?
Goldman Sachs used econometric models to forecast country-by-country medal count based on previous Olympic performance and economic growth, which is (not surprisingly) positively correlated with Olympic success.
And so with that basic idea, here's their total Olympic medals forecast.

Note that China is actually expected to see a sequential decline in total medals, thanks to the fact that it's losing its home-country benefit from 2008, when the games were hosted in Beijing. According to Goldman, home countries outperform their expected haul by 54%.

So on with facts, Goldman Sachs expects the US to receive 37 gold medals, China 33, UK 30 in the 2012 Olympics. Korea ranked 8th with 10 gold. This year Korea's objective is to be within the top-10, and get more than 10 gold medals. I hope that Goldman Sachs' forecasts are accurate.

It would definitely be fun to see if the outcome is correct. 
Let's wait and see!

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